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[quote="cranhead"][quote="Guest"]Even for year-to-year, the fluctuation is very significant. can you believe the price of last july was up 5.6% from July 2006? Some builders are getting rid of inventories. I guess you may find some opportunities if you are looking for new construnctions. I believe real estate is local in nature. Even last week, i was still hearing 4 offers in one week in some desirable towns. http://www.nytimes.com/2007/09/27/business/27cnd-econ.html?ex=1348545600&en=b79e6aaa6562b2d2&ei=5088&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss[/quote] Its humerous when people try ot suggest the market is still strong. I'll tell you what. Since you're a realtor (hearing multiple offers), I'll make you a deal. If you can sell my home for more than I bought it 2 years ago, I'll give you not just the normal commission but 50% of all the profit. But in exchange, you agree to buy it for what I did if you can't sell it. Deal? If you're that confident in the market, go for it.[/quote]
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FL
Posted: Sun, Sep 30 2007, 10:57 pm EDT
Post subject: Re: A Reality Check for Home Sellers
aaa, I don't see much difference except 1) kids in south got to cross old trenton road to school; 2) north is 1 or 2 years younger than south. as far as i know, almost all the homes sold in south this spring were for the reason of kids out to colleage with one exception, which was relocation to connecticut.
aaa
Posted: Sun, Sep 30 2007, 8:37 pm EDT
Post subject: Re: A Reality Check for Home Sellers
fl wrote:
It was wrong 2 years ago to think every house in every town will raise over 10% each year. It is wrong now to think every house in every town will colapse in next two years. I agree with previous post that the real estate market is local: Location, location, location. Take Cranbury Greene as example, the houses away from route 130 were sold quicker than those closer to 130 or on the main street (not in village).
Regarding Cranbury Greene (or Cranbury Green?) homes, the homes north of Old Trenton Rd. (closer to the village) seems to be more popular than those south of Old Trenton Rd.
fl
Posted: Sun, Sep 30 2007, 10:38 am EDT
Post subject: Re: A Reality Check for Home Sellers
It was wrong 2 years ago to think every house in every town will raise over 10% each year. It is wrong now to think every house in every town will colapse in next two years. I agree with previous post that the real estate market is local: Location, location, location. Take Cranbury Greene as example, the houses away from route 130 were sold quicker than those closer to 130 or on the main street (not in village).
aaa
Posted: Sun, Sep 30 2007, 9:29 am EDT
Post subject: Re: A Reality Check for Home Sellers
I believe in Cranbury if you can sell your home at the reassesed value, then you are doing well.
If you want to increase the probability of multiple offers, then price your home at between 5% and 10% off the reassesed value.
cranhead
Posted: Sat, Sep 29 2007, 11:29 pm EDT
Post subject: Re: A Reality Check for Home Sellers
Guest wrote:
Even for year-to-year, the fluctuation is very significant. can you believe the price of last july was up 5.6% from July 2006?
Some builders are getting rid of inventories. I guess you may find some opportunities if you are looking for new construnctions. I believe real estate is local in nature. Even last week, i was still hearing 4 offers in one week in some desirable towns.
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/09/27/business/27cnd-econ.html?ex=1348545600&en=b79e6aaa6562b2d2&ei=5088&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss
Its humerous when people try ot suggest the market is still strong. I'll tell you what. Since you're a realtor (hearing multiple offers), I'll make you a deal. If you can sell my home for more than I bought it 2 years ago, I'll give you not just the normal commission but 50% of all the profit. But in exchange, you agree to buy it for what I did if you can't sell it. Deal? If you're that confident in the market, go for it.
Guest
Posted: Sat, Sep 29 2007, 9:35 pm EDT
Post subject: Re: A Reality Check for Home Sellers
Even for year-to-year, the fluctuation is very significant. can you believe the price of last july was up 5.6% from July 2006?
Some builders are getting rid of inventories. I guess you may find some opportunities if you are looking for new construnctions. I believe real estate is local in nature. Even last week, i was still hearing 4 offers in one week in some desirable towns.
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/09/27/business/27cnd-econ.html?ex=1348545600&en=b79e6aaa6562b2d2&ei=5088&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss
cranhead
Posted: Sat, Sep 29 2007, 8:17 pm EDT
Post subject: Re: A Reality Check for Home Sellers
FL wrote:
cranhead,
new home sales number vraies significantly from month to month. when you look at northeast region, sales was up 42% in August while down 27% in July. It is hard to draw any conclusion from there. with interest rate going down and bailing out plan in place, I would think this fall is the last change to buy at low.
That's why the better measurement is year-over-year not month-to-month. The fed report showed the Northeast was down year-over-year. August is always way bigger than July in good and bad markets.
FL
Posted: Sat, Sep 29 2007, 8:01 pm EDT
Post subject: Re: A Reality Check for Home Sellers
cranhead,
new home sales number vraies significantly from month to month. when you look at northeast region, sales was up 42% in August while down 27% in July. It is hard to draw any conclusion from there. with interest rate going down and bailing out plan in place, I would think this fall is the last change to buy at low.
cranhead
Posted: Sat, Sep 29 2007, 4:44 pm EDT
Post subject: Re: A Reality Check for Home Sellers
The latest federal data came out last week. Prices dropped on average 8% year over year, the second straight year of decline. Inventory levels are at their highest in over 30 years partically because there are so many houses on the market with prices that are not consist with the current market values. And new home prices, considered a better indicator of market value since the builders are less emotional about maintaining price levels against market conditions, dropped much further in price.
Guest
Posted: Wed, Sep 26 2007, 4:02 pm EDT
Post subject: Re: A Reality Check for Home Sellers
FL wrote:
here are some houses sold recently in cranbury greene development.
street assessed value sold price sold date
Statis $910K $965K 06/2007
Statis $865K $850K 04/2007
Chamberlin $729K $775K 09/2007
Chamberlin $889K $830K 07/2007
Perrine $789K $770K 08/2007
Perrine $829K $805K 07/2007
you can see most of them are sold around assessed value.
Hi FL!
Your data is very current. Where did you get the info? If possible, I would like to get the info too. Thanks!
FL
Posted: Tue, Sep 25 2007, 8:30 pm EDT
Post subject: Re: A Reality Check for Home Sellers
here are some houses sold recently in cranbury greene development.
street assessed value sold price sold date
Statis $910K $965K 06/2007
Statis $865K $850K 04/2007
Chamberlin $729K $775K 09/2007
Chamberlin $889K $830K 07/2007
Perrine $789K $770K 08/2007
Perrine $829K $805K 07/2007
you can see most of them are sold around assessed value.
Guest
Posted: Tue, Sep 25 2007, 2:41 pm EDT
Post subject: Re: A Reality Check for Home Sellers
What part of "not a realtor" was not clear? This was all publically available data from this site and the Internet. It takes at least a few months for actual sale data to make it to the Internet unless you have access to the realtor part of the MLS... But what's your point? Are you actually suggesting that the price trend has reversed in the last few months and if so what are you basing this interesting notion on? Certainly not the current asking prices on for most of the homes.
The difference between the earlier sales and the appraised values is not a "premium" and that idea makes no sense because the appraisals were done months to a year after the earlier sales for each neighborhood. The appraisals are supposed to reflect fair market prices at the time they are done. What it shows is that the fair market prices dropped between the mid-2005 to early 2006 sales and the October 2006 appraisals. Then they dropped further by the later sale example in each neighborhood, even where the later sale had a higher appraised value.
The best gauge of pricing is actual sales. List prices, at best, reflect the ceiling of a market, but since most homes are having to reduce prices before a sale they are not much of an indicator of fair market. Homes like the $1.25M one on Main Street was never worth anywhere in the ballpark of it. That was just an irrational seller.
You still haven’t listed any examples of recent sales that are not down from 2005 comps.
Guest
Posted: Tue, Sep 25 2007, 12:04 pm EDT
Post subject: Re: A Reality Check for Home Sellers
I think recent assessed value gives a good indicator on whether
the house was sold at premium or discount.
4 bed/4.5 bath Woods at Cranbury sold 6/2006 for $1.517M
6 bed/5.5 bath Woods at Cranbury sold 2/2007 for $1.365M (had asked $1.675M probably based on the above comp)
first one assessed value $1.40M
second one assessed value $1.38M
the first one sold at 8% premium
>>>>
Silvers Lane sold on 2/2006 for $965,000 (appraised 10/2006 for $880,000)
Silvers Lane sold on 4/2007 for $815,000 (asked $999,000, appraised 10/2006 for $848,000)
(homes in this neighborhood were asking over a million in 2004-2005)
the first one sold at 9% premium
>>>>
Cranbury Heights Estates sold on 7/2005 for $1.25M (appraised 10/2006 for $1.165M)
Cranbury Heights Estates sold on 10/2006 for $1.185M (appraised 10/2006 for $1.176M)
the first one sold at 8% premium
---------------
> And the list goes on. The above are only a year apart but the drop has been over a two year period so far. Homes in Shadow Oaks were getting mid-$800’s and now are in the low $700’s.
Recent buyers seem prefer modern design than large property.
> Cranbury Green homes were getting into the $900’s and are now in the low 800's
one was sold at $970K in June 2007. the rest were sold around 800K closed to recent assessed values.
> Even brand new homes like Liedtke were selling for $1.3M’s in 2005 but were back down to $1.1M’s by the end of 2006.
Quote:
No recent sale?
Guest
Posted: Tue, Sep 25 2007, 11:32 am EDT
Post subject: Re: A Reality Check for Home Sellers
aaa: it would make more sense by comparing sale price with recent assessed value. the original listing price is just seller's expectation. that one on Main street was originally listed 1.25M but now it is $750K and still sit there.
guest 2
Posted: Mon, Sep 24 2007, 10:49 pm EDT
Post subject: Re: A Reality Check for Home Sellers
I’m not a realtor, but here’s a few:
4 bed/4.5 bath Woods at Cranbury sold 6/2006 for $1.517M
6 bed/5.5 bath Woods at Cranbury sold 2/2007 for $1.365M (had asked $1.675M probably based on the above comp)
Silvers Lane sold on 2/2006 for $965,000 (appraised 10/2006 for $880,000)
Silvers Lane sold on 4/2007 for $815,000 (asked $999,000, appraised 10/2006 for $848,000)
(homes in this neighborhood were asking over a million in 2004-2005)
Cranbury Heights Estates sold on 7/2005 for $1.25M (appraised 10/2006 for $1.165M)
Cranbury Heights Estates sold on 10/2006 for $1.185M (appraised 10/2006 for $1.176M)
And the list goes on. The above are only a year apart but the drop has been over a two year period so far. Homes in Shadow Oaks were getting mid-$800’s and now are in the low $700’s. Cranbury Green homes were getting into the $900’s and are now in the low $800’s. Even brand new homes like Liedtke were selling for $1.3M’s in 2005 but were back down to $1.1M’s by the end of 2006.
aaa
Posted: Mon, Sep 24 2007, 10:04 pm EDT
Post subject: Re: A Reality Check for Home Sellers
The most dramatic price reduction in my neck of the woods that I know of is this example:
Listed on Aug. 2006 for $919K. Sold around a year later for ~$707K.
I believe the seller probably made a handsome profit even after the price reduction.