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[quote="Cranbury Conservative"]Advocates defend deadline for submitting affordable housing plans As Gov. Jon Corzine considers asking the state Council on Affordable Housing to extend the Dec. 31 deadline for 214 towns to submit plans for providing affordable houses and apartments, a coalition of housing advocates argues that the action is unnecessary. The governor said today his aides are studying the legal ramifications of extending the deadline, something sought by legislators and many municipal officials. "We're reviewing legislation that is in the Legislature to see what impact that would have in terms of legal responsibilities we have to fulfill," Corzine said. Corzine was referring to a measure introduced by Sen. Christopher "Kip" Bateman (R-Somerset) that would extend the deadline to June 30. Bateman said an extension would "provide the Legislature with time to fix the substantive errors in the COAH regulations and laws." The governor would have to ask the COAH board to hold a special meeting before the end of the month to approve an extension. The Housing & Community Development Network of New Jersey, the Fair Share Housing Center and the New Jersey Branch of the NAACP today released what coalition leaders described as a review of three plans being prepared by towns for submission to COAH. The Cherry Hill-based Fair Share Housing Center released an analysis of plans developed by Montgomery, Cranbury and Toms River, towns where officials have said new COAH regulations are too onerous, and found that bonuses and adjustments in the rules have allowed towns to reduce their obligations by as much as 80 percent. The analysis found that with credit for units already built or through other breaks provided by COAH, Montgomery would need to provide 268 houses and apartments over the next 10 years and not the state obligation of 426 units. It found Cranbury would need to provide 150 units instead of 269. Toms River would need to provide 392 units and renovate another 50 existing ones, less than 20 percent of its obligation for 2,231 units. "Many of these towns are on one hand asking for an extension, and on the other hand drafting plans that produces fairly modest numbers of affordable homes that fall short of the real need in our communities," said Mike McNeil, NAACP housing chairman. "When it comes down to it, it just isn't too hard to meet COAH's rules." "We applaud towns like Cranbury who are making their plans fit the new laws and rules, and are seeing that their towns will not have to change very dramatically to do so," said Diane Sterner, Housing and Community Development Network director. The coalition leaders reiterated their opposition to an extension of the deadline, which they argue would also result in lost opportunities for much-needed new construction jobs in the midst of an economic downturn. As of last week, Sandyston, Frankford, Ewing and Woodcliff Lake had submitted their plans to COAH, and the remaining 210 towns have had their plans approved by their councils or planning boards or have them under review by the panels.[/quote]
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Jay T.
Posted: Mon, Dec 22 2008, 1:54 pm EST
Post subject: Re: Article: Affordable Housing Advocates Speak About Cranbury and other towns..
JD,
That is an excellent point. I would hope that our town would have written into the contracts some sort of indemnification or responsability clause where such errors and omissons result in a reduction in fees. That is a costly mistake for a paid consultant to make.
In terms of responsability for challenging the COAH number, I would think that would be of equal importance given the record of COAH in devising their calculations. Any means to reducing the number should be explored before we start building and creating an obligation for the tax payers.
Jersey Dad
Posted: Mon, Dec 22 2008, 1:26 pm EST
Post subject: Re: Article: Affordable Housing Advocates Speak About Cranbury and other towns..
Guest wrote:
To me, the follow up question is on whose recommendation or what process did the town follow when we hired the COAH consultant? Was it lowest bid? Is our agreement with her simply to review the numbers put forth and help us adjust? If so, then that was a poor use of money and she's done her job. If she was to help us look at numbers and whether they made sense, I have not seen that arguement. Cranford's number was based on backyards and land that was restricted right of way for the parkway. Cranbury has the turnpike. Did COAH use turnpike land in their calculations to determine Cranbury's number? No one says they even looked at that.
I don't know if our consultants were charged with the task of combating COAH's calculations. If not, someone should be given that job. However, my understanding is that they are responsible for identifying opportunities to satisfy the obligation. Until recently, our consultants missed the opportunity to count 11 units from NJ SERV housing toward our obligation. To quantify this potential ommission, 11 units x $161,000 = $1,771,000.
According to what was said publicly, this opportunity was brought to the attention of our consultants by a member of the public after several residents suggested a review of alternative and creative approaches to satisfying our obligation. Members of the public were encouraged to bring forth any knowledge of other similar facilities.
Ed k
Posted: Sat, Dec 20 2008, 7:58 pm EST
Post subject: Re: Article: Affordable Housing Advocates Speak About Cranbury and other towns..
Just a quick followup from prev post, most banks are using 2.5 house price to income ratio currently if anyone is going for a loan now.
Ed k
Posted: Sat, Dec 20 2008, 7:50 pm EST
Post subject: Re: Article: Affordable Housing Advocates Speak About Cranbury and other towns..
Here's more info and stats to use when writing an article to the Cherry Hill analysts. NJ Affordable Housing should be naturally driven (not artificially through COAH). Current market forces are making housing all around NJ more affordable as a correction to the housing bubble of 2006.
The last time there was a housing spike in the late 80's. he house price to income ratio for New Jersey was 4.27 in 1990. By 1993 the ratio was 3.46. The low point was 3.14 which was in 1997. This was a 7 year correction.
In our latest housing bubble, the house price to income ratio reached 5.63 at its highest. It's down to 5.14 now and all indications are that it will continue to drop. My guess is that it's going to hit below 4, like it did last time. So unless people's incomes drastically increase, house prices will have to come down.
FYI: The house price to income ratio is a common ratio of house affordability. Take your income and multiply it by the ratio to estimate the cost of the home you can afford. Median NJ income is $64,470 that mean the median house would be $257K (currently its north of $331K) At least an additional 30% decrease in home values is expected and most of that from home purchased after 2005.
Guest
Posted: Sat, Dec 20 2008, 10:49 am EST
Post subject: Re: Article: Affordable Housing Advocates Speak About Cranbury and other towns..
Ed-
Good post.
But you are too generous! I wish there was any logic behind this, fuzzy or not! Special interests forced a number (it would be impolite to suggest where they pulled it from...). COAH then backed into the number and we live with the consequences of, yet again, public interest pressure screwing up this state, our economy, communities, etc.
The numbers you presented certainly show the absurdity of the situation. As I have said time and time again, affordable housing in NJ is a paradox. We should be promoting the affordability of living in this state, not allowing special interest zealots to advance an affordable housing program that makes NJ less affordable across the board.
Bill Baroni is trying to advance a bill that would revisit the obligation stemming from warehouse space (the job assumptions COAH use bounce around like a ping pong ball...his bill floats roughly 0.25 jobs per 1000 sq ft, rather than COAH's 1/1000sq ft, which was previously 1.5/1000 sq ft). So much for sound science driving decision making. I understand that the 0.25 jobs assumption in Bill's proposed bill is based on our own survey of warehouse space.
In response to "guest", our consultant's charge was all but assuredly to help develop the town's plan for conforming with the Rd 3 obligation advanced by COAH. I don't know that she was charged with critically reviewing the obligation or challenging it.
Other parts of the state (e.g., Highlands communities) have been directed that other policies (e.g., the Highlands act and the regional master plan) trump affordable housing mandates. In my mind this establishes precedent that other factors must be considered when promulgating affordable housing mandates. Even the enabling law notes that resource conservation objectives must be considered and given weight when planning for affordable housing. (As a wrote that I realized my oxymoronic statement --"planning" for affordable housing...). I won't even get into the ridiculous extent that our affordable housing policy flagrantly disregards good planning principles....
/BJS
Jersey Dad
Posted: Sat, Dec 20 2008, 9:49 am EST
Post subject: Re: Article: Affordable Housing Advocates Speak About Cranbury and other towns..
IMO, our COAH strategy is either an extraordinary plan that cannot be fully explained to the public; or a highly acclaimed, vigorously defended plan that is not extraordinary but still qualifies as above average.
Unfortunately, the challenge we are facing is undoubtedly extraordinary. I think some of the friction in the community is that concerned residents want to know for sure that we are taking an extraordinary approach to an extraordinary challenge.
Guest
Posted: Sat, Dec 20 2008, 8:10 am EST
Post subject: Re: Article: Affordable Housing Advocates Speak About Cranbury and other towns..
To me, the follow up question is on whose recommendation or what process did the town follow when we hired the COAH consultant? Was it lowest bid? Is our agreement with her simply to review the numbers put forth and help us adjust? If so, then that was a poor use of money and she's done her job. If she was to help us look at numbers and whether they made sense, I have not seen that arguement. Cranford's number was based on backyards and land that was restricted right of way for the parkway. Cranbury has the turnpike. Did COAH use turnpike land in their calculations to determine Cranbury's number? No one says they even looked at that.
Cranbury Conservative
Posted: Fri, Dec 19 2008, 11:30 pm EST
Post subject: Re: Article: Affordable Housing Advocates Speak About Cranbury and other towns..
Ed your post is FANTASTIC!!! and right on the mark.
Now I have to question between the stats Ed and several of us have placed on this board concerning Cranburys affordable housing numbers why have we not heard any similar statements or arguments from our COAH Consultant or the TC when they are advocating for our town?
ed k
Posted: Fri, Dec 19 2008, 3:36 pm EST
Post subject: Re: Article: Affordable Housing Advocates Speak About Cranbury and other towns..
Quote:
The analysis found that with credit for units already built or through other breaks provided by COAH, Montgomery would need to provide 268 houses and apartments over the next 10 years and not the state obligation of 426 units. It found Cranbury would need to provide 150 units instead of 269. Toms River would need to provide 392 units and renovate another 50 existing ones, less than 20 percent of its obligation for 2,231 units.
So let me use some REAL math here since COAH uses fuzzy logic mostly, can someone double check my math here:
COAH1 numbers were 143 subsidized homes obligation met by Cranbury
COAH2 our obligation met was 51 homes met
COAH3 estimate was 269 for Cranbury right?
If you add those using advanced Grade 2 mathematics calcs
143 COAH1
051 COAH2
269 COAH3 (maybe 150 after adjustments)
===
463 total subsidized obligation for Cranbury Township
We only have about 1100 households in Cranbury
463/1100 = ratio of 42% NJ taxpayer subsidized housing .vs. Homeowners in Cranbury.
42%-31% of the homes are low to moderate income, meaning low-no taxes, Did the analyst report from "The Cherry Hill based Fair Share Housing Center" also include the total cost of funding for COAH and the additional infrastructure needed in Cranbury, like additional School space, Police, Fire, Pub Works, etc that will be required for these new families? Because no other township has as large of a burden then Cranbury with an expected 42%-31% drain on resources without taxable ratable in return? What other NJ muni has this high of a property tax burden then Cranbury?
In the end the NJ taxpayer will be on the hook for an excess of $20B from all munis including Cranbury for just this type of shortsighted accounting by these so-called analysts from the housing center in Cherry Hill. Some official from Cranbury needs to point these numbers out, instead of the misguided numbers that Mike McNeil used in the article. Any takers from town hall want to write an article for the Trenton Times about these real numbers from Cranbury and TCO? No one at COAH or the Cherry Hill ever talk about Total Cost of Ownership for the town and NJ taxpayer (except Sen. Bateman, Baroni and Kean we need Cranbury to be more public in support of these senators.)
My final point is Why build more subprime subsidized housing in NJ now anyway?
A recent statistic has a 48% increase in foreclosures in NJ last quarter, isn’t there an overabundance of affordable housing now, why do we need to build more homes when so many NJ taxpayers are underwater?
http://www.bergenjerseyforeclosures.com/blog/info/entry/september_nj_foreclosures_up_48
Cranbury Conservative
Posted: Thu, Dec 18 2008, 4:26 pm EST
Post subject: Re: Article: Affordable Housing Advocates Speak About Cranbury and other towns..
Jersey Dad wrote:
What these subsidized housing advocates fail to realize is that subsidizing 100,000 houses will take 100,000 house-shoppers out of the market for a home, which will result in further depreciation of real estate, predominantly impacting low and moderate income homeowners. Plus, these same homeowners will pay higher taxes to subsidize the goverment services used by residents of subsidized housing.
The bottom line is, homes will be worth less, and taxes will increase. The impact will be particularly damaging to low and moderate income homeowners.
JD your point is spot on. I say this because with the current financial crisis along with the housing slump there suddenly are many affordable housing units available throughout New Jersey. Granted everyone may not be able to afford a home in every town, however since when is that a right anyway?
I love where I live however I also really like some of the homes on Petty Road which are priced well beyond my means. With the logic being used I should have the right to live their if I want to even though I cannot afford it.
Bottom line the affordable housing mess here in New Jersey is Ridiculous...
Guest
Posted: Thu, Dec 18 2008, 4:13 pm EST
Post subject: Re: Article: Affordable Housing Advocates Speak About Cranbury and other towns..
Well, isn't this the whole problem with Corzine and our current legislators? They say we need to raise the sales tax because we have no revenue and then hand out millions in Christmas Tree items. Why not just cut the Christmas tree items out?
They say we need to fix the Abbott districts, all the while handing out billions in state construction aid.
They say we need COAH to pander to certain groups. Then when it's realized that it's causing a problem on the taxes and incomes of those who will pay the price, they look to blame it elsewhere.
I have friends who are died in the wool democrats living in California, Connecticut and other more liberal leaning states and they are appalled by what COAH and the state of NJ are doing by socializing housing.
Corzine negotiates with his girlfriend who is the head of the state employee's union then says his emails are priveleged. Why does he hide behind privelege if he has nothing to hide? Or is it more likely that he's like the Ill. Governor and making side deals.
He runs on the premise of property tax reform and then cuts the rebates all while raising taxes. If you make 150K as a couple then too bad no reform for you.
Our state is legally corrupt and some like Wayne Bryant not even legally corrupt. Until we vote people out and don't look at voting pure party line we are all condoning these actions.
So you either need to be dirt poor so you can get a new house or you have to be super wealthy where the taxes don't matter.
Guest
Posted: Thu, Dec 18 2008, 3:20 pm EST
Post subject: Re: Article: Affordable Housing Advocates Speak About Cranbury and other towns..
Cranbury Conservative wrote:
"We're reviewing legislation that is in the Legislature to see what impact that would have in terms of legal responsibilities we have to fulfill," Corzine said.
"Many of these towns are on one hand asking for an extension, and on the other hand drafting plans that produces fairly modest numbers of affordable homes that fall short of the real need in our communities," said Mike McNeil, NAACP housing chairman. "When it comes down to it, it just isn't too hard to meet COAH's rules."
"We applaud towns like Cranbury who are making their plans fit the new laws and rules, and are seeing that their towns will not have to change very dramatically to do so," said Diane Sterner, Housing and Community Development Network director..
First of all, Corzine was the one who started this whole mess - He set an unrealistic goal and let the legislators do what they wanted without looking at the fallout. Now it is time for Corzine to help clean it up.
Secondly, thank goodness Diane Sterner was there to help soften the blow Cranbury received in this article (however right or wrong she was). I'm sure our TC would not have responded to this NAACP backed report.
Jersey Dad
Posted: Thu, Dec 18 2008, 1:33 pm EST
Post subject: Re: Article: Affordable Housing Advocates Speak About Cranbury and other towns..
I believe Mr. McNeil lives in Trenton. Given that the state taxpayers subsidize the majority of Trenton's property taxes, Mr. McNeil may simply not realize the true impact of subsidized housing on property taxes.
I believe Ms. Sterner lives in Allentown, where they are fighting oppressive COAH obligations. I haven't come across any of Ms. Sterners comments in opposition of her town's efforts. I'd be interested to know if her views on subsidized housing extend to her own community.
What these subsidized housing advocates fail to realize is that subsidizing 100,000 houses will take 100,000 house-shoppers out of the market for a home, which will result in further depreciation of real estate, predominantly impacting low and moderate income homeowners. Plus, these same homeowners will pay higher taxes to subsidize the goverment services used by residents of subsidized housing.
The bottom line is, homes will be worth less, and taxes will increase. The impact will be particularly damaging to low and moderate income homeowners.
Jay T.
Posted: Thu, Dec 18 2008, 6:54 am EST
Post subject: Re: Article: Affordable Housing Advocates Speak About Cranbury and other towns..
I agree with the above posts. I'd just echo it's the classic WIFM principle in effect, "What's In It For Me." When arguing the COAH rules it's tough to win because it's one sided in terms of needing to represent facts. Advocates have no need to present factual information because they claim the moral high ground and no one argues it out of fear. The classic example being how Cranbury was portrayed prior to passage of A-500. Should Mr. McNeil have stated the comparison of COAH to market rate it would have demonstrated the idiocy of the rules and weaken their position. Therefore, it is easier to claim the moral right and fairness in providing housing.
It's why we really do need to evaluate the requirements, challenge it at every turn, build only as and when required, build at the level so required, and do so in a cost effective manner.
Jersey Dad
Posted: Thu, Dec 18 2008, 12:09 am EST
Post subject: Re: Article: Affordable Housing Advocates Speak About Cranbury and other towns..
Also of note in this report, is that units that have previously been built in this round are lumped in with "other breaks" provided by COAH. The implication is that building units in advance, despite the chaotic rule changes, is viewed as taking advantage of some sort of loop hole. IMO, this is one more reason to build as we are required to, not too early, not too late. These housing tax advocates show no respect for early compliance.
Cranbury Conservative
Posted: Wed, Dec 17 2008, 11:26 pm EST
Post subject: Re: Article: Affordable Housing Advocates Speak About Cranbury and other towns..
From the report above I find the comments of Mike McNeil the NAACP housing chairman to be appalling.
I say this because Mr. McNeil has without any factual basis determined that a small town such as Cranbury having to build 150+ affordable housing units is “Modest”.
Mr. McNeil fails to realize that Cranbury is a small town which only has 1100 homes in its entire community. In his assessment Mr. McNeil’s “Modest” opinion of the affordable housing mandate being placed on the taxpayers of Cranbury is reckless since he fails to understand that his “Modest” opinion means that Cranbury’s housing stock will increase by over 10% if it is forced to build the units which are being mandated by COAH.
In the report Mr. McNeil also fails to point out that Cranbury already has 94 affordable housing units that are already located conveniently side by side with other homes within its village.
Further Mr. McNeil also ignores that according to COAH’s calculations out of the 200 plus towns in COAH Cranbury with a population of about 3900 residents (one of the smallest municipal populations in COAH) has spent the 20th most affordable housing dollars of any town in COAH.
As we look at the comments which are made by the affordable housing advocates concerning towns such as Cranbury we need to stop to analyze their views so we can then begin to realize they are attempting to move forward antiquated policies and agendas which are based on rules and regulations which were formulate 20 to 30 years ago.
Additionally the affordable housing advocates in New Jersey fail to realize that New Jersey is in its own major financial crisis one that is impacting the same communities which they want to force to build additional affordable housing.
The affordable housing advocate are also not seeing that the majority of State aid and funding is being poured into the major urban areas of New Jersey by the billions of dollars through Abbot Districts, Municipal Aid, and Education funding.
We then are left with the question of how exactly is it fair to ask the suburban communities of New Jersey to not only fund the major urban areas of New Jersey while at the same time asking these same suburban taxpayers to take less in municipal aid and school aid all while at the same time forcing them to build affordable housing?
In the end the affordable housing advocates of New Jersey are just another group of lobbyists with an agenda which is self serving because the affordable housing mandates which are being applauded by these advocates are nothing more then an unfunded mandate which is being placed on the taxpayers of New Jersey.