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[quote="Guest"]The earnings and the number of employees of financial companies will contract a lot. I am betting technology and pharmaceutical companies will recover. Also, the commodity, agriculture, and energy markets will recover once China and other emerging markets take over as the driving force of global economy, replacing the consumers of the US.[/quote]
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<table border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="100%" class="forumline"> <tr> <th class="thCornerL" width="22%" height="26">Author</th> <th class="thCornerR">Message</th> </tr> <tr> <td width="22%" align="left" valign="top" class="row1"><span class="name"><a name=""></a><b>Guest</b></span></td> <td class="row1" height="28" valign="top"><table width="100%" border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"> <tr> <td width="100%"><img src="templates/subSilver/images/icon_minipost.gif" width="12" height="9" alt="Post" title="Post" border="0" /><span class="postdetails">Posted: Tue, Oct 28 2008, 3:41 pm EDT<span class="gen"> </span> Post subject: Re: Stock Market</span></td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="2"><hr /></td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="2"><span class="postbody">Finally, a good day. Given the news that the consumer confidence at all-time low. Phew!</span></td> </tr> </table></td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="2" height="1" class="spaceRow"><img src="templates/subSilver/images/spacer.gif" alt="" width="1" height="1" /></td> </tr> <tr> <td width="22%" align="left" valign="top" class="row2"><span class="name"><a name=""></a><b>Guest</b></span></td> <td class="row2" height="28" valign="top"><table width="100%" border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"> <tr> <td width="100%"><img src="templates/subSilver/images/icon_minipost.gif" width="12" height="9" alt="Post" title="Post" border="0" /><span class="postdetails">Posted: Fri, Oct 24 2008, 11:48 am EDT<span class="gen"> </span> Post subject: Re: Stock Market</span></td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="2"><hr /></td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="2"><span class="postbody">The earnings and the number of employees of financial companies will contract a lot. I am betting technology and pharmaceutical companies will recover. Also, the commodity, agriculture, and energy markets will recover once China and other emerging markets take over as the driving force of global economy, replacing the consumers of the US.</span></td> </tr> </table></td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="2" height="1" class="spaceRow"><img src="templates/subSilver/images/spacer.gif" alt="" width="1" height="1" /></td> </tr> <tr> <td width="22%" align="left" valign="top" class="row1"><span class="name"><a name=""></a><b>Guest</b></span></td> <td class="row1" height="28" valign="top"><table width="100%" border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"> <tr> <td width="100%"><img src="templates/subSilver/images/icon_minipost.gif" width="12" height="9" alt="Post" title="Post" border="0" /><span class="postdetails">Posted: Fri, Oct 24 2008, 11:21 am EDT<span class="gen"> </span> Post subject: Re: Stock Market</span></td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="2"><hr /></td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="2"><span class="postbody">The biggest risk to Cranbury housing, other than if we're required to merge townships or schools with isn't likely yet, is the overall state of the job market in the Tri-State area. We haven't yet seen that shoe seriously drop yet. I sat in a meeting with NY State and NYC officials, as well as representatives from major financial institutions and businesses based in NY yesterday, and they painted a pretty bleak picture. NYC is facing a contraction of well over 100,000 jobs next year. And that would have a ripple effect of course on the communities these people live in and all the other jobs that exist to support these consumers. This year the story is about credit and the stock market. Next year it will be about unemployment, inflation and substantially reduced consumer spending which leads to companies reducing workforces, etc. It will affect almost every sector. <br /> <br />Unfortunately the tri-state area is not a great place to sit out unemployment and a prolonged, deep recession, because the cost of living is too high. Many people will be forced to sell and that will have a major negatively impact on housing values, not just in Cranbury but everywhere around here. So far housing prices have dropped 10-20% on average from their peek. It is hard to fix the average more than that since there have been so few sales in Cranbury overall and since the effect has been different on different types/values of housing (with the higher-end homes ironically dropping less in price as a percentage). If the recession is as bad as it might be, we could be looking at as much as another 30% drop in home values over the next 2 years before it bottoms out. If that sounds impossibly low, consider California which started a recession sooner than the rest of us. There are communities there that have seen home prices drop 67% from their peak, to prices that are at 30 year lows. In the equivalent outlying commuter neighborhoods as we are in the Bay Area and Los Angeles, prices have dropped over 35% and haven’t stopped yet. <br /> <br />At this meeting these senior officials and execs from the major banking institutions were saying even an eventual recovery will be a very long process. That’s because they believe there will be an effectively permanent (the phrase used and agreed upon by the experts in the room was “at least for our lifetime”) contraction of the financial sector. Between regulation and their own revision of practices as a result of everything that’s happened, the banks expect to only leverage themselves about half the rate they historically have. This will linearly lead to revenues not more than half their previous rates and profits possibly less than half as much. And this will need to an effectively permanent reduction in the size of these institutions as employers. The Finance section currently represents 20% of the economy of NYC. If it gets at least half as small, as the are saying is virtually certain, that represents a long term reduction of at least 10% of the economy of NYC, unless/until it can be replaced in some other way. That is huge. That is a lot of jobs and a lot of impacted home owners. <br /> <br />I wish the story was more optimistic but that was the mood of the room.</span></td> </tr> </table></td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="2" height="1" class="spaceRow"><img src="templates/subSilver/images/spacer.gif" alt="" width="1" height="1" /></td> </tr> <tr> <td width="22%" align="left" valign="top" class="row2"><span class="name"><a name=""></a><b>Guest</b></span></td> <td class="row2" height="28" valign="top"><table width="100%" border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"> <tr> <td width="100%"><img src="templates/subSilver/images/icon_minipost.gif" width="12" height="9" alt="Post" title="Post" border="0" /><span class="postdetails">Posted: Fri, Oct 24 2008, 10:34 am EDT<span class="gen"> </span> Post subject: Re: Stock Market</span></td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="2"><hr /></td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="2"><span class="postbody">It's scary. I have lost about 50% in my stock and mutual fund accounts. The fortunate part is that I don't need the money now, so I am not forced to sell at a steep loss. <br /> <br />In this environment, people who don't have much debt and have money to invest will fare well in the long run. I hope this is the only time in my life to see a global recession. <br /> <br />Currently, I am accumulating cash to buy the stocks I like. <br /> <br />Regarding the housing market in Cranbury, it will be slow. I don't see sellers trying to sell in a panic mode like stock markets. <br /> <br />A Cranbury housing market crash will occur if we are forced to consolidate with South Brunswick schools instead of Princeton.</span></td> </tr> </table></td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="2" height="1" class="spaceRow"><img src="templates/subSilver/images/spacer.gif" alt="" width="1" height="1" /></td> </tr> <tr> <td width="22%" align="left" valign="top" class="row1"><span class="name"><a name=""></a><b>Guest</b></span></td> <td class="row1" height="28" valign="top"><table width="100%" border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"> <tr> <td width="100%"><img src="templates/subSilver/images/icon_minipost.gif" width="12" height="9" alt="Post" title="Post" border="0" /><span class="postdetails">Posted: Fri, Oct 24 2008, 10:32 am EDT<span class="gen"> </span> Post subject: Re: Stock Market</span></td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="2"><hr /></td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="2"><span class="postbody">My personal belief is that this while sever it will correct and rebound in the next 12-24 months. There is a need for regulation, but I think we can go back to where it was in the early 90's before the banking laws started to be loosened. <br /> <br />The housing prices will decrease in the short term, but those that plan to be here for 10-15 years will see the prices rise again beyond the highs. It's similar to the 80's housing collapse. The house prices rebounded, but it took time. I wouldn't look to sell today. <br /> <br />The price of oil is decreasing which is good and that should translate into lower costs on food and such which in turn will help with spending. <br /> <br />Also, the dollar is strengthening because of issues in places like Russia and Argentina. When the foreign markets have fear there is investment in the US dollar as people in countries like Argentina and Russia know the dollar is backed by a federal banking system.</span></td> </tr> </table></td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="2" height="1" class="spaceRow"><img src="templates/subSilver/images/spacer.gif" alt="" width="1" height="1" /></td> </tr> <tr> <td width="22%" align="left" valign="top" class="row2"><span class="name"><a name=""></a><b>Guest</b></span></td> <td class="row2" height="28" valign="top"><table width="100%" border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"> <tr> <td width="100%"><img src="templates/subSilver/images/icon_minipost.gif" width="12" height="9" alt="Post" title="Post" border="0" /><span class="postdetails">Posted: Fri, Oct 24 2008, 10:20 am EDT<span class="gen"> </span> Post subject: Stock Market</span></td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="2"><hr /></td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="2"><span class="postbody">Just wanted to see everyone's opinion on what is going on.... What do you think this will do to Cranbury and the prices of housing? It is a scary time we are all facing right now!</span></td> </tr> </table></td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="2" height="1" class="spaceRow"><img src="templates/subSilver/images/spacer.gif" alt="" width="1" height="1" /></td> </tr> </table>
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